What an extraordinary day this has been. Mubarak’s departure from the public stage, and the manner in which it came about, must rank as one of the seminal political moments of the last half-century. In terms of its potential effect on the Middle East it is not out-of-line to compare this with the fall of the Berlin Wall.

There remains, of course, much to be done. It is a cliché at moments like this to observe that only now does the hard part begin, but that, sadly, is true.

The first, perhaps the paramount, question is: what are the military’s intentions? Is it willing to allow a real transition to a genuinely democratic system? Or are the members of the newly-empowered Higher Military Council (analogous, we are told, to America’s Joint Chiefs of Staff… but the JCS are accustomed to taking orders from civilians. Their Egyptian counterparts are not) looking mainly to preserve Mubarak’s system sans Mubarak? In the coming days two things will do much to answer that question.

First, what is the role of Omar Suleiman? It was the intelligence chief-turned-vice-president who announced Mubarak’s resignation on state television Friday. But his statement was simple, lasting only a few seconds. It remains uncertain whether he, too, has been stripped of power, or whether the authority Mubarak so ineptly ceded to him on Thursday night has now been enhanced.

We still do not know exactly who is running things in Egypt, but of this you can be certain: if Suleiman proves to be a significant figure within the military’s new ruling council that is a sign that the old regime wants nothing of consequence to change. This, after all, is Mubarak’s longtime right-hand man, who as recently as last week was telling interviewers that the way to deal with the protestors was to call their grandparents so that the elder generation could order their wayward offspring home. This is the vice president who as recently as a few days ago was rejecting democracy as something Egyptians are too immature to deal with.

Second, the emergency law. Suleiman and Mubarak were both defending it as recently as yesterday. With one short hiatus just prior to Anwar Sadat’s assassination in 1981 it has been in place since 1967. It is often said that the law ‘gives the government sweeping powers’. Let us be blunt: what it does is provide a legal veneer for the National Security State that Egypt became under Nasser and has remained ever since. It authorizes effectively unlimited detention without trial, draconian surveillance, military trials for civilians and a myriad of other police state activities. The emergency law stands second only to Mubarak himself as a symbol of the Old Ways. If the military does not do away with within the next few days that fact alone will be a powerful indicator that the change Egyptians seek is not likely to come.

What will be a good sign? Judges. Egypt’s judiciary has long been one of the few bits of the state apparatus that has occasionally shown some independence from the Mubarak regime. The country’s judges, as a class, command significant public support. To the extent that the military puts them at the forefront of the coming transition, that will be a very good omen.

“Historic” is a word we journalists are wont to overuse. Today, however, was that rare day when the events were so jaw-dropping that it seemed inadequate in every way. The real work of building a democracy in the Arab World’s most essential nation begins now, but it begins on a high note, thanks to an uprising whose success few could have imagined a mere three weeks ago.

Omar Suleiman just announced on state TV:

"President Mohammed Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down as President of Egypt and has assigned the Higher Council of the Armed Forces to lead the nation."

Where Suleiman stands in all of this is hard to say. On the one hand he made the announcement. On the other hand, there was no reference to the constitutional process triggered by a presidential resignation - the parliament speaker taking power for 60 days. Perhaps Suleiman is now functioning merely as one element of the Higher Council of the Armed Forces?

The demonstrators have won - but the exact nature of their victory is still uncertain.

Television channels around the world have been on Mubarak-Resignation-Watch for several hours now. State TV has announced that Mubarak will speak this evening Cairo Time. Beyond that, however, everything is speculation.

This is an important point to make at a moment like this. Whatever is happening in the high councils of state is happening, for the moment, in camera.

CNN, for example, has been reporting seemingly conflicting announcements by a "senior Egyptian official" associated with the ruling National Democratic Party saying that Mubarak will step down. It also, however, is reporting a statement by the Egyptian information minister denying that the President is resigning. Considering, however, how radically Egyptian State Television has gone off-message in the last few hours it is reasonable to ask how on top of things the info minister really is. That, however, highlights a deeper point: Washington watchers know well that no Congressman, Senator or presidential aide is ever willing to admit to a reporter that he has no clue what is going on. Instead they make sage-sounding pronouncements while demanding anonymity as sources. What makes one think Egyptian officials are, in this regard any different (I can tell you from nearly seven years experience as a Cairo-based reporter that they aren't)?

Put another way, there are only a few people in Mubarak's inner circle and among the senior military leadership who really know what is happening right now, and it is a near certainty that none of those people are talking to the press - Western or Arab.

Reporters need to report stuff and when a senior official says something it can legitimately be treated as news. It is less often, however, that reporters stop to ask themselves whether the senior official in question really has any idea what he is talking about.

On the first or second morning of the Gulf War Cairo's semi-official newspaper Al-Ahram ran a seemingly blockbuster story about the Egyptian Air Force conducting missions outside Egyptian airspace as part of the war effort (something the government had previously said it would not do). As a reporter for ABC News I called up an Egyptian general I had a passing acquaintance with to try and get confirmation. Egypt, of course, has a very large military with an inordinate number of general officers... but for any foreign reporter in Cairo military sources were fiendishly hard to come by. Hey, you work with what you've got.

I asked the general to confirm the Al-Ahram story and was thrilled when he said "yes, yes. I can confirm that." Excellent! I thought, sensing a scoop. Then the general said...

"I saw it in Al-Ahram just this morning!"

So what is Mubarak about to say? I haven't a clue. And, frankly, neither does anyone on your TV screen. Patience.

My longtime friend Jihan El-Alaily, formerly of the BBC's Arabic Service, now an independent journalist based in Cairo, forwarded the following dispatch last night. I am republishing it here with her permission.


By Jihan El-Aiaily
Cairo, 8 February:  Until the 25th of January, 2011,  29 year-old Mohammed Said lived an ordinary and uneventful life in Monofeya, an Egyptian province 110 km North of Cairo. He had never been involved in politics or participated in a demonstration before. Mohamed worked during the day in a medium sized commercial venture and, like millions of Egyptians, spent his evenings surfing the internet, chatting on Facebook and other social media sites. The first wave of demonstrations on Jan 25th  that had attracted an unexpected young crowd of 100,000 people to Tahrir Square turned out to be a defining moment for Mohamed.  Braving rubber bullets, tear gas and brute force used by Egyptian Security forces and plain clothes policemen, the protesters never wavered: the slogans they displayed called for ‘justice, freedom, human dignity’.

That same evening on Facebook, Mohamed saw hundreds of SOS messages from the shocked protestors, who had been roughed up by the police, calling on people to come out on the streets to support them. The distress messages on the Facebook pages and twitter were happenings of seismic proportions that changed Mohammed’s life forever.   It was the moment when Mohamed and hundreds of thousands like him across the country shed their fear and translated their collective loathing of their ruler into action. They surged toward Tahrir (Liberation) Square, defying the emergency law, the bullets and the batons of the police, and the absurd laws of the state that require authorization for any peaceful gathering of more than three people.

On January the 26th, Mohammed applied for and was granted a lengthy sick leave by his employers. On the same day, the government, in a desperate attempt to block the crowds, had taken measures to make entry into Cairo from the provinces a near impossibility.  Undaunted, Mohamed walked for miles, hitchhiked and used the few available minibus services until he finally managed to make it to Tahrir Square -  from which he has not budged since that day.

12 days into the demonstrations that rocked the country from Tahrir Square, I met Mohamed in the same location which he now calls ‘home’. He has vowed never to leave it until the protesters’ demand that President Mubarak steps down is met. “Freedom or martyrdom”, he said defiantly.

His chest, forehead and two fingers were bandaged. He had been hit by a rubber bullet and stones during the running battles of the 27t and the early hours of the 28th when the regime’s ‘supporters’, in a desperate attempt to spread chaos, charged into the square with camels and horses , while other thugs and plainclothes policemen showered protesters with stones, sharp metal objects and rubber bullets. The army stood by, barely attempting to restore law and order. Mohammed joined thousands of young men, heroically defending Tahrir Square, armed with nothing more than stones and an undaunted faith in the ‘rightness’of the revolution. 

What about fear of death, I asked?  “Fear grips those who are not fighting for a cause’, he replied confidently. “But our cause is one, we are fighting to regain our stolen humanity,’ he said in reference to the 30 years of repressive rule under President Mubarak, where basic human freedoms have been ruthlessly denied.

It is as if Mohamed and tens of thousands of his mates in Tahrir Square have fused into one collective being - nobler and more single-minded than their individual selves. As they pushed back the thugs with their stones and bare chests, the protesters roared in unison “the People demand the fall of the regime”.  The ‘People’ have finally, miraculously, found their voice and they roared their wishes for all the world to hear.

In a sense, Tahrir Square has seen the birth of a new world, fueled by blood, courage, rage and determination that is unifying the minds of 80 million plus Egyptians and spreading like wildfire across the country.  It is this new legitimacy founded on the will of ‘the People’ that has rattled the old order where torture and corruption are standard practices by state machinery, invariably with impunity.

Though barricaded from all sides by army tanks, Tahrir Square represents a kind of oasis to the hard core protestors like Mohamed and their countless supporters -  an oasis of freedom, love and generosity of spirit. “It is the best thing that happened to me, I would have regretted it all my life had I not taken part in the revolution’ he said.  It has been exhilarating for many people like Mohammed to move from virtual freedoms on the Facebook pages to practice and enjoy the real thing in Tahrir Square. The Square has become like Speaker’s Corner in Hyde Park, a melting pot where rich and poor meet, where secularists and Islamists rub shoulders without the usual tensions, where Muslims and Christians take part protecting each others’ prayer gatherings, where not a single case of sexual harassment has been reported by the thousands of women present.

The somewhat carnival-like atmosphere is seeing an amazing rebirth of political satire, imagination, arts, and irrepressible Egyptian humour.  All of which would have been unimaginable prior to the events of January 25th that triggered this revolution.

Despite his wounds, obvious fatigue, haggard appearance, worn clothing that hardly protects  his frail body from bitterly cold January nights and his old shoes riddled with holes, Mohamed was able to joke about these hardships and was in very high spirits. Transformed by the Revolution, Mohamed sees everyone around him as family. “In the square I have found my mother who is not my real mother, met my sisters and brothers who are not my real siblings. We are one family, we care for each other,’ he explained.  Ironically, he thanks Mubarak for making the miracle happen.

Today, the revolution seems to have reached a deadlock since it has not yet succeeded in ousting Mubarak and his degenerate band. The embattled regime is trying desperately to hang on to power by offering piecemeal concessions, dividing the supporters while continuing to intimidate and threaten the protestors. The official media continues to spread lies and hate messages about the protesters and the journalists (local and foreign) covering the protests, accusing them all of being agents following foreign agendas.

Two dragons, one evil and the other good, are spewing fire at each other as the battle rages across the country....two worlds are colliding. Mubarak’s smug belief in the ‘unchangeableness’ of the Egyptian national character will be his undoing. The Facebook-ers have called his bluff and millions of ordinary Egyptians have responded, bringing the call for change on to the streets. 

As the Irish poet and novelist, Oscar Wilde, observed, “the error of Louis XIV was that he thought human nature would always be the same. The result of his error was the French Revolution. It was an admirable result.” Mubarak rhetoric seems to reflect those exact same beliefs which, in turn, have brought about the Revolution of the 25th of January.

The protesters have coined a simple but brilliant response: ‘Erhal’ (Leave).

Jihan El-Alaily, is an independent journalist who lives in Cairo.

My latest column for Gulf News looks at the rapidly changing situation in Egypt and the vexing question of what the US ought to do about it.

The US cannot - and should not - pick Egypt's next leader, but it should do everything it can to ensure that Egyptians get a real opportunity to do so.

Read the entire column.

The talk from Cairo today has been about the modalities of moving Hosni Mubarak aside. This ignores (for the moment) the fact that he clearly has no intention of going anywhere, though the underlying assumption is that the military can push him out if and when they really want to. Washington, worrisomely, seems over the last 24 hours to have shifted its attitude a bit. Though the Obama administration never explicitly called for Mubarak to resign the Egyptian presidency it certainly came close to doing so at several points this week. Now the message from Washington and other Western capitals seems to be that change needs to start now – but it’s OK if Mubarak stays around to oversee it.

The reasons behind this lie in the Egyptian constitution, and it is worth taking a little time here to look at exactly what that document says. This link will allow you to download an English-language translation of Egypt’s constitution. The website in question is run by the Electoral Knowledge Network, but the pdf document it links to is the Egyptian government’s official translation of the Arabic original.

As more than a few commentators have noted in recent weeks, Egypt’s succession procedures are very different from what people in the United States are accustomed to (see especially this analysis by Nathan Brown at Foreign Policy). The most important factor is this: if the president resigns or dies, newly appointed vice president Omar Suleiman does not become president. Instead, the office passes temporarily to the speaker of parliament, a rather colorless government hack named Fathi Surour. Surour would be acting president for sixty days, at the end of which period an election would have to be held with the winner getting a full six-year term in the Presidential Palace. Surour, as Acting President, would not be eligible to be a candidate in this election.

This procedure mirrors the one that brought Mubarak to power in the first place. Back in 1981 Egyptian presidents were elected by parliament rather than by a popular vote. When Sadat was assassinated the then-speaker of parliament became Acting President until the parliament could pick a new leader. That Mubarak, Sadat’s vice president and a hero of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, would be that choice was never seriously in doubt since the People’s Assembly (as the parliament is known) then, as now, was largely a rubber-stamp body.

Fast-forward to 2011, however, and this scenario sets up a lot of unpleasant possibilities. This is especially the case because, in 2005, Mubarak had the Assembly pass several amendments to the constitution. These amendments established direct presidential elections, but were also explicitly designed to ensure that no serious candidate could run against Mubarak or his anointed successor (i.e. his son Gamal) in any future presidential election. See the constitution’s insanely-detailed Article 76 for the details. A companion amendment (Article 77) removed the term limits that had heretofore applied (at least theoretically) to the Egyptian presidency. Mubarak clearly is well aware that these two articles are particular sore points with his critics: when he went on TV last week to insist he would stay but, at the same time, to promise reform he singled out Articles 76 & 77 of the constitution as things that need changing.

So the problem with the constitution as it stands is this: if Mubarak resigns he triggers a rushed election for which the opposition is not prepared and in which only candidates approved by his cronies can run. Moreover, constitutional changes need to be enacted by the People’s Assembly, and it is difficult to imagine this group of government hacks, on their own initiative, making any moves to lessen what little power they have.

There are, however, ways around this problem. Everything I have just described is contingent on the president resigning. Article 82 of the constitution, however, allows the President to “delegate his powers to a vice president” if “on account of any temporary obstacle the President of the Republic is unable to carry out his functions.”

Note that phrase: “a vice president”, not “the vice president.” While Mubarak had, until last week, governed without any vice president at all the constitution allows him to appoint, believe it or not, as many VP’s as he may wish to have. If he then steps aside due to a “temporary obstacle” he can choose the VP to whom he delegates his powers.

A VP serving as Acting President does not have the authority to dissolve parliament, but this issue is easily dealt with by having Mubarak issue such a decree immediately before signing over his powers.

Thus, a plausible scenario emerges: one that allows Mubarak to exit with some dignity, preserves the army’s role in the transition (let’s be honest: Mubarak will only go if the military pushes him out, and that will only happen if the military is assured that its own place in society is secure) but, at the same time, opens a path for true democracy:

Step 1: Mubarak appoints another vice president – perhaps Mohammed Elbaraedi. Even better: he even appoints two new VPs (perhaps ElBaraedi and someone representing the business community).

Step 2: Mubarak dissolves parliament – an act that requires new elections after two months.

Step 3: Mubarak, invoking article 82, transfers his powers to one of the new vice presidents. The new acting president, Omar Suleiman and our notional third vice president become a temporary ruling council. They preside over new parliamentary elections.

Note that all three of these steps can be done simultaneously: just sign the three relevant documents in the correct order.

Step 4: The new parliament rewrites Article 76 to ensure that a free and fair election can take place in September. Meanwhile the three-person ‘Presidential Council’ outlined above runs the country through the summer and early fall.

My point here is that Mubarak’s grotesque, undemocratic constitution is being presented in a number of western accounts as an insurmountable obstacle to democratic reform. An argument is emerging in both Washington and Cairo that Mubarak or Omar Suleiman needs to remain in charge of the country for at least the next several months if reform is to take place within a legal framework (which, I think we can all agree, is probably better than the army formally taking over and starting from scratch). This is not true. The constitution as it stands is a dictator’s manifesto – but a way forward does exist; one that takes Egypt toward the democracy and does so by rule of law. If, of course, the President can first be made to see that his position is no longer tenable.

It is clear that on one level the Mubarak regime has succeeded: by harassing reporters, arresting them, beating them and generally working to keep them away from Tahrir Square it has dramatically curtailed the coverage of events in Cairo. By most accounts today’s rally was among the largest yet, and almost completely peaceful. Yet, here in the United States at least, the wall-to-wall coverage was gone, and you had to be watching a lot of Egypt news to get to a deeper reality: the rally in the Square was huge and inspiring, but bad stuff continued to happen only a few blocks away. Not as bad as yesterday, but bad nonetheless.

After two days of watching the carnage the Egyptian army stepped in today to serve as a security force. But, as Anderson Cooper noted grimly on CNN this evening, while it is right to praise the military for maintaining order in the square one must wonder why they carefully search anti-government demonstrators but not the ‘pro-government’ ones nearby.

To my mind, the most telling quote of the day comes from a New York Times story that was mainly about Thursday’s clashes in Tahrir Square:

“If we can’t bring this to an end, we’re going to all be in the slammer by June,” said Murad Mohsen, a doctor treating the wounded at a makeshift clinic near barricades.

That, I think, captures the real danger here. The protestors have passed the point of no return.

Mubarak’s self-preservation plan seems reasonably clear: his thugs cause violence, which state-controlled media blames on foreign spies. Meanwhile, the army stays superficially neutral (it was telling that when the defense minister came to the Square to inspect troops today he was reportedly well-received by the crowd, but told some of the protestors that what they are doing is “against Egypt”) and waits for the proper moment to step in to “restore order”. The government has promised to investigate and punish those responsible for the violence, but you can be assured that if that ever happens it will be the anti-government demonstrators who wind up in prison, not their persecutors. Mubarak stays on to oversee yet another round of superficial, mainly meaningless, reforms and nothing much changes.

Will this work? It is worth remembering that as dramatic and inspiring as the last two weeks have been the crowds in the streets represent, at best, about 5% of Egypt’s population. We can be sure that for every person marching in Cairo, Alexandria or Suez there are many others who dare not march but fully agree with them. There are also, however, many people who are invested in the regime and have a stake in seeing it continue. The fact that the thugs who caused most of this week’s violence were paid does not mean that they all had to have their arms twisted to do it.

Beyond that, Omar Suleiman’s televised call on the demonstrators to go home quietly, secure in the knowledge that they have made their point and their demands have been met will strike a chord with more than a few Egyptians, as ludicrous as it may sound to those of us watching from afar. It appeals to two very Egyptian cultural traits: a desire to calm emotions and diffuse conflict by saying ‘Hey, it’s OK. No problem. Maalesh. Everything’s good’, and a belief that people should be allowed to save face whenever possible. It is notable that a number of older demonstrators interviewed over the last day or two have been receptive to the idea that Mubarak should be allowed to finish his term because it is the dignified thing to do, granted his decades of service to the country.

Beyond that, it is important to remember that somewhere between one-quarter and one-third of Egyptians are illiterate and very poor. What these people know of the world they get mostly from state TV. And what has state TV been showing? This report from the respected blogger/activist known as Sandmonkey is both depressing and chilling:

In the meantime, State-owned and affiliated TV channels were showing coverage of Peaceful Mubarak Protests all over Egypt and showing recorded footage of Tahrir Square protest from the night before and claiming it's the situation there at the moment. Hundreds of calls by public figures and actors started calling the channels saying that they are with Mubarak, and that he is our Father and we should support him on the road to democracy. A veiled girl with a blurred face went on Mehwer TV claiming to have received funding by Americans to go to the US and took courses on how to bring down the Egyptian government through protests which were taught by Jews. She claimed that AlJazeera is lying, and that the only people in Tahrir square now were Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. State TV started issuing statements on how the people arrested Israelis all over Cairo engaged in creating mayhem and causing chaos. For those of you who are counting this is an American-Israeli-Qatari-Muslim Brotherhood-Iranian-Hamas conspiracy. Imagine that. And MANY PEOPLE BOUGHT IT. I recall telling a friend of mine that the only good thing about what happened today was that it made clear to us who were the idiots amongst our friends. Now we know.

Click here to read Sandmonkey’s entire post.

Some significant things did change today – the appearance of Arab League Secretary General (and former Egyptian Foreign Minister) Amr Moussa in the Square Friday may prove to be a turning point – a first step in the establishment moving to ease Mubarak out of the presidential palace (or maybe not – Moussa has long been known as Egypt’s most glaringly ambitious political figure). Tantawi’s visit to the Square, despite that ominous exchange with a protestor, will be seen by many as a subtle nod toward the anti-government forces by one of the few people with the power to force Mubarak out.

But the bottom line remains: the regime, for now at least, plans to stay. It believes it can tell enough lies, intimidate enough people and shut down the economy to such an extent that, in the end, most of the anti-government forces will give up. It will wait out the demonstrators and exact its revenge after the foreign reporters go home. The terrible truth is, this just might work.

Anchor Fergus Nicoll cited MideastAnalysis.com this morning on the BBC World Service's The World Today program. The reference came during his interview with Dr. Nadeem Shehadeh of Chatham House - approximately 3:40 into the following clip.

It will be dawn in Cairo soon, and even from a distance of 6000 miles I am seized with a deep sense of foreboding.

When I lived in Cairo I quickly learned that an element of every trip home to the United States was answering the question: “what kind of government do they have over there?”

My stock answer to this was: “a military dictatorship, but a relatively benign one as these things go.” It was not, I’d explain, Pinochet’s Chile, Argentina under the colonels or Saddam’s Iraq – an all-encompassing terror state. The government wasn’t nice, but it did not engage in brutality on that scale.

Now, I’m not so sure. Anyone who has known Egypt over the last two decades will tell you that the country has seen an authoritarian drift over the past ten or 15 years. Max Rodenbeck wrote of this trend more than a dozen years ago in the final pages of his excellent book Cairo: The City Victorious, when he considered, with obvious disappointment, a city that had become harder-edged than the one he had known for so many years.

It retrospect it may simply be that what, until now, separated Mubarak from his more notorious dictatorial brethren is that he has managed to go nearly 30 years without having to really put his foot down.

I keep telling myself that this is not the Egypt I know. Then, however, I remind myself that in some ways, actually, it is. Way back in 1994 two journalist friends and I went to Cairo’s newly built 100,000-seat soccer stadium to watch a World Cup qualifier between Egypt and Zimbabwe. Entering the stadium we noted with some interest that it was surrounded by seven, yes seven, security fences. “Well,” one of my colleagues remarked, “now we know what they plan to do with all the fundis (i.e. Islamic fundamentalists) when the uprising comes.”

As for the nationalistic paranoia the government has unleashed against foreign journalists and human rights workers, that, too, has been a fixture of Egyptian life for decades. Foreign journalists working in Egypt (and most of the rest of the Middle East) long ago accustomed ourselves to the idea that pretty much everyone we met assumed us to be spies. Journalists and spies, after all, do many of the same things: they gather information, ask questions, cultivate confidences. Human rights activists, if anything, were worse. From a government perspective do they have any purpose at all except to embarrass the country? Looked at this way it is not hard to see how the Mubarak regime has been able today to convince its thugs that journalists and human rights workers are among the most important enemies who need to be rooted out in the name of preserving Egypt’s stability.

It may even be that Mubarak and his Vice President-cum-intelligence chief Omar Suleiman believe much of the rhetoric they have been spouting about foreign elements plotting to undermine the stability of the state. Especially since their seeming belief that nasty foreigners are out to get them dovetails nicely with what they seem to want to do: make sure that prying foreign eyes are removed from Tahrir Square and its surroundings before the final confrontation. Mubarak has never been especially good at international PR, but he is smart enough to know that a crackdown televised live around the world will be very bad for him on many, many levels.

Friday feels like an historic day, one likely to determine the balance of power and, with it, the eventual course of this uprising. The question that remains to be answered concerns the army and where its ultimate loyalties lie. I have been saying for several days that the generals around Mubarak are loyal to him, but have a deeper loyalty to the institution of the military. When they believe Mubarak has become too much of a liability, they will force him out. I still believe that, but stand corrected concerning how much latitude they have been willing to give him to solve things the old fashioned way – with the street thugs the regime has used for decades (albeit on a much smaller scale). The government clearly wants whatever happens Friday to take place without pesky reporters and cameras around to record it. Even with the violence of the last 24 hours, however, that is likely to prove far more difficult than they imagine.

What none of us on the outside can know is how the army’s own internal dynamics may factor into this. The U.S. State Department was telling journalists earlier today that in standing by as the violence swelled around them Wednesday and Thursday the army had, in effect, made a choice. On one level, that is certainly true. But it may also be that the generals around Mubarak are less than completely sure the captains and majors commanding those tanks in Tahrir Square will obey an order to crush the protests.

I suspect we will have a better sense of all these questions by the time the sun goes down tomorrow.

Mubarak has just finished speaking. His remarks were more or less as predicted.

Saying "I never wanted power or prestige" he said. He continued:

"I will say in all honesty, and without looking at this particular situation, that I was not intent on standing for the next elections because I have spent enough time serving Egypt, and I am now careful to conclude my work for Egypt by presenting Egypt to the next government in a constitutional way that will protect Egypt."

The key bit may, however, have been the first part of the speech, where Mubarak charged that the protests, while legitimate in their origins, have been hijacked "by those who wanted to exploit the situation to create chaos and destroy the constitution." The message here is that Mubarak does not believe that the demonstrators in Cairo, Alexandria and other cities are truly representative of the Egyptian public.

That conclusion on his part makes his bottom line unsurprising: Mubarak intends to stay and serve out his term. He called for democratic reforms and changes to the constitution, but indicated that he plans to be the person who oversees these between now and the fall.

Will this be enough? We should have a better sense in 24 hours or so, but it is worth noting that CNN is reporting that the crowd in Tahrir, after watching the speech on a giant TV, began chanting "We're not leaving."